Predicting changes in corruption-related crime is important for quality work to counter it. Identifying the main trends, establishing the probabilistic state of the development of these crimes makes it possible to create a real model to counter it, effectively use forces and means, plan organizational, technical and other measures, take into account the real risks for the economy and society. One of the best ways to predict corruption crimes and bribery is the use of mathematical modeling, in the implementation of which it is possible to reveal the hidden patterns of the dynamics of these types of crimes and use them to create reliable forecasts. In the arti-cle, on the basis of mathematical modeling methods, a forecast of the development of indicators of corruption-related crimes, as well as bribery, is carried out. The purpose of this article is to build a mathematically sound model for predicting changes in corrup-tion crime, which could make reliable short-term and medium-term forecasts. Therefore, the research tasks are as follows: the need to establish the factors that influence the development of corruption crimes, the characteristic of the approximation of trend models for statistical data on bribery, the preparation and verification of forecasts. As an instrumental conclusion, it was found that to pre-dict the indicators of giving, receiving bribery, a fifth-degree polynomial function is needed, but a second-degree polynomial is enough to describe the dynamics of crimes associated with mediation in their commission. As a result, a general conclusion was drawn that in the medium term there will be a slight decrease in the indicators of corruption crimes and a simultaneous increase in the number of mediation of their commission.

crime forecasting, mathematical modeling, corruption-related crimes, bribery, receiving, giving a bribe, mediation in bribery

Nikonov Pavel Vladimirovich – Candidate of Juridical Sciences, Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Department of Crim-inal Law, Irkutsk Law Institute (branch) of the University of Prosecutor’s Office of the Russian Federation (1, Shevtsov st., Irkutsk, 664035, Russian Federation), ORCID: 0000-0003-2721-0481, e-mail: nikonov_pv@mail.ru

Nikonov P. V. Effektivnost' primeneniya metodov matematicheskogo modelirovaniya dlya opredeleniya tendencij razvitiya korrupcionnoj prestupnosti i vzyatochnichestva [Use of Mathematical Modeling Methods for Prediction of Crimes of Corruption and Bribery] Sibirskij yuridicheskij vestnik [Siberian Law Herald]. 2022, no 1(96), pp. 89–97. DOI 10.26516/2071-8136.2022.1.89. (in Russian).

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